A number of demographic factors, including gender, ethnic group, and origin, impact globalization variously, changing, for one, the makeup of labor pools, or driving identitarian and ideological polarization. Two elements, however, stand out as sufficiently decisive forces accelerating global dynamics: age and population growth

Having followed certain indicators for years, we know that many societies are aging rapidly and their workforces dwindle as a percentage of total population. The growing ratio of reliance on an aging population exerts increasing pressure on social security frameworks, which then turns up the pressure on public policy and even political systems. Age segregation — caused, among other factors, by younger workers moving to cities in search of employment opportunities and thus emptying out rural areas — feeds into disparate worldviews and political convictions among age groups. In other words, a generation gap widening and shattering social cohesion.

However, the older age groups have progressively come to outnumber the young in most developed societies. Several political outcomes may emerge from this trend. For example, voting could lean toward more conservative proposals, less accepting of multicultural arrangements, less aligned with systemic reform, along with changes in the consumption of goods and services, like health care, challenging companies and government bodies to work differently so that social exclusion or exacerbated inequality do not take hold.

Other societies, presenting a younger, growing demographic profile, will replenish their workforce and favor more diversified consumer markets. These growing populations need to be fed, housed, educated, and employed to materialize productive potential and maintain social peace. Countries with young population averages face the mounting issues of youth unemployment and underemployment, regardless of their qualifications, which leads to the brutal misalignment of expectations and more wide-ranging social unrest.

By 2030, one out of six people in the world will be 60 or older. And then, the percentage of 60+ seniors in the world will have increased from 1 billion in 2020 to 1.4 billion. By 2050 the number will have doubled (2.1 billion) to twice that of children under 5 and almost reach the number of children under 12. UN agencies forecast that the number of people 80 and over will triple between 2020 and 2050, reaching 426 million. Although this demographic change began in high-income countries (in Japan, 30% of the population is currently over 60) it is now low- and middle-income countries experiencing the most dramatic changes. By 2050, two thirds of the world’s 60+ inhabitants will live in low- and middle-income countries.

International migration is playing a relevant role when it comes to defining demographic trends. In high-income countries, international migration has contributed to population growth between 2000 and 2020 more than the birth-death ratio. So the estimate is that migration will remain the leading driver of population growth for high-income countries throughout the near future. However, it is expected that population growth in low- and middle-income countries will still be driven by a higher number of births than deaths.

For example, between 2010 and 2021, 40 countries saw net inflow of over 200,000 migrants each. Seventeen of them recorded over a million people. Some countries witnessing high levels of immigration during this period were Jordan, Lebanon, and Turkey, especially due to the influx of refugees, especially from Syria. On the other hand, in ten of those countries, the estimate for liquid exit of migrants went over one million during the same period, which owed to temporary workforce movements across a few countries, while in others it owed to conflict and a chronic lack of safety.

Amid such dynamics, the Covid-19 pandemic had far-reaching effects on population shifts, including births, deaths, and migration. In 2021, life expectancy at birth went down worldwide — from 72.8 years in 2019 to 71, mostly due to the pandemic. Across central and south Asia, as well as Latin America and the Caribbean, life expectancy at birth decreased by almost three years between 2019 and 2021. Bolivia, Botswana, Lebanon, Mexico, Oman, and the Russian Federation all saw life expectancy at birth go down by over four years between 2019 and 2021.

Generally speaking, risk of poverty increases with age, despite the safety net often provided by family. Taking into account the growth of aging demographic swaths, the issue of poverty in old age will gain more relevance, especially in low- and middle-income countries without state-run retirement and pension schemes. Elderly women are at greater risk for poverty than men, as unequal access to social security in old age is connected to gender inequalities, much like under-participation of women in the workforce.

In Europe, the elderly may have long faced high risk of poverty and social exclusion, but the trend has reversed. Between the mid-1990s and the late 2000s, their income grew faster than it did for the rest of the population. Back in 2019, only 18.6% of people over 65 were at risk for poverty and social exclusion, which made them the least affected age group. Those between 18 and 24 faced a much higher rate, 27.8%. Throughout the European Union, the budgetary impact of an aging population already constitutes a huge challenge according to the European Commission’s forecast. It is estimated that the global cost of aging, namely public spending on health, prolonged care, pensions, education, and unemployment benefits will reach 26.7% of GDP. Intergenerational equity may become a growing concern as inequality between older and younger generations increases: pension income is more stable and less impacted by economic crises than market-driven income.

Another possible effect of population aging is the increasing electoral weight of an older constituency. Along with greater participation in the electoral process, especially evident in urban areas, this fact may push political decision-making toward closer alignment with their tax preferences, meaning expenditure on pensions and public services to the detriment of spending on education, subsidized housing or public infrastructure. This situation might lead to under-representation of younger voters, who will be affected by the outcomes of the democratic process for much longer.

Let us now turn to other parts of the world. According to the Asian Development Bank, one in four people in Asia will be over 60 by 2050. That’s a threefold increase compared to 2010. It is expected that China, the region’s major economic power, will see a 220-million decrease in people of working age, and that Japan’s population will dwindle by 16%, with the number of elderly citizens living alone soaring by 47%. This demographic change has far-reaching implications which demand immediate attention from decision-makers, companies, and society at large. As citizenries age, countries will face challenges such as increased health care costs, a smaller workforce, and potential economic stagnation. These internal challenges may impact foreign policy priorities, military capability, and regional power dynamics.

China, whose forecasts indicate that it will overtake the United States as the world's largest economy, may face obstacles to its ascension owing to a diminishing workforce and the increase in social security spending. China's economic slowdown may have global effects. Countries that have benefited from the country's rise, such as southeast Asian and European Union exporters, may have to reassess their growth strategies. Furthermore, China under financial constraints may find it hard to fund its ambitious Belt and Road Initiative or modernize its armed forces at the current pace. This may potentially alter the security landscape in the Asia-Pacific region.

Asia’s demographic challenges are not homogeneous, however. While East Asia ages rapidly, parts of the Asian south and southeast still have relatively young populations. India, the world’s most populous nation, presents an average age of 28. India's young could position it as a counterweight to China’s influence in the region, as India can make effective use of its workforce. Demographic variation across Asia may also lead to increased migratory flows, as countries with aging demographics will try to solve the issue of labour scarcity by attracting migrants. Such is the case with Japan, which has begun to loosen its traditionally strict immigration policies to attract foreign workers. These migration patterns, driven by demographics, may reshape cultural landscapes and recreate sources of regional tensions.

Climate change in and of itself adds another layer of complexity to this demographic shift. With extreme weather events becoming more frequent, older populations become especially vulnerable, which may lead to new migration patterns in and outside Asia.

Therefore, present-day political choices will play a crucial role in the way countries adapt to demographic, environmental and economic change. Investment on education, health care, and technological innovation may help tackle some of the challenges posed by an aging population, which still requires promotion of social and cultural adaptations so as to support older workers and foster solidarity between generations. Social peace itself may be at stake.

Text written before November 1, 2024.

Disclaimer: The views, thoughts and opinions expressed herein belong solely to the author and do not reflect the official positions or policies of, or obligate, any institution, organization or committee he may be affiliated with.